2020橡胶展观察：5月中国进口橡胶同比下降，需求恢复仍需等待

「行业资讯」2020橡胶展观察：5月中国进口橡胶同比下降，需求恢复仍需等待

2020-06-15

近日，2020橡胶展据中国海关总署6月7日公布的数据了解到，2020年5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计44.1万吨，同比降13%。

2020年1-5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计259.8万吨，较2019年同期的263.5万吨下降1.4%。

东南亚产胶国3月产量下滑，需求边际好转。ANRPC产胶国自3月进入割胶淡季以来，产量出现下滑，而我国橡胶消费成主要增量导致ANRPC消费量出现增加，供应量与消费量差值出现减少但仍为正值，供需仍显过剩，据ANRPC,一季度ANRPC产量为266.2万吨，同比基本持平，一季度ANRPC消费量为175.95万吨，同比下滑19%，其中中国一季度消费量为86.1万吨，占ANRPC消费量的49%,国内3月在疫情控制下，橡胶3月消费出现放量。

进入5月，国内外产区新胶供应预期减少，供应偏紧预期或成交易主逻辑。国内云南、海南地区由于白粉病及橡胶现货低迷，割胶初期胶水产量预计较少，泰国由于干旱及原料价格过低抑制胶农的割胶意愿，尤其是杯胶价格已跌破弃割线，虽然价格低于弃割线并不代表泰国的产出归零，但是长期低于弃割线一定会导致产量减少，预计泰国橡胶产出缩减，近期市场交易的主逻辑是需求的疲软，而5月以后，疫情拐点或现，需求最坏时刻已过去，供应端偏紧预期或逐步占据主导。

四大主产区运输物流限制，橡胶出口量下滑。受疫情影响，东南亚四大主产国泰国、越南、马来西亚、印度尼西亚对于港口、边境的封闭导致橡胶运输物流出现障碍，先有马来西亚封闭槟城港口，不再接受泰国货物过境，后有泰国对人员流动进行控制，进入5月，疫情或将基本得到控制，四大产区人员流动、物流运输将恢复，橡胶出口或将恢复正常，据ANRPC,四大主产区3月天然橡胶出口量71.57万吨，同比下滑8.75%，增速已连续三个月为负值。

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