【第十九届中国国际橡胶技术展览会】橡胶技术展丨橡塑机械展丨橡胶机械设备展

“利奇马”台风对合成橡胶行业的影响

2019-08-15

“利奇马”台风其风雨强度大、持续时间长等特点殃及到合成橡胶行业，部分轮胎企业工厂因进水、漏雨、车间被淹等各种情况陆续停产。这使得需求疲弱、但价格上行的合成橡胶市场陷入尴尬境地中。

据卓创资讯监测的数据可知，2019年1-5月份丁苯顺丁橡胶价格在11000元/吨之上调整，6月份其价格下行通道开启，山东区域丁苯、顺丁橡胶价格分别跌至10000元/吨、10400元/吨。此节点价格支撑力度较强，7月下旬丁苯顺丁橡胶价格突破上行。

丁苯、顺丁橡胶价格上涨过程中，其相关因素表现特点如下：

缺乏利多驱动沪胶弱势难改

天胶产业内部环境表现欠佳，国内外新胶供应释放增加，终端消费持续表现不振，基本面仍以偏弱表现为主;且主力合约移仓换月 09合约面临交割压力，同时20#胶上市均对远月高升水形成压制，因此天胶整体缺乏利多驱动，短期难有反转上行的机会。

丁二烯突破上涨丁苯顺丁橡胶成本剧增

因丁二烯外盘价格偏高，国内进口丁二烯货源稀疏，北方丁二烯资源流出量也不多等供应面利好的推动下，丁二烯价格呈现出连续性上行的趋势;终端丁苯、顺丁、SBS、ABS开工均稳定，对丁二烯价格存有一定的刚需，推动丁二烯价格加速上行，涨后与丁苯、顺丁橡胶价格基本持平。

终端行业刚采丁苯顺丁交易遇阻

8月份轮胎陆续进入高温限电期，其轮胎行业开工率普遍下滑，对丁苯顺丁橡胶的需求体量萎缩。丁苯顺丁市场价格上行市场未体现“买涨”情绪，反而成交处于存有阻力的尴尬境况中。

综合分析，本轮丁苯、顺丁橡胶价格的上行主要得益于丁二烯原料价格的上行，终端用户需求疲弱起到了强有力的制约作用。目前受“利奇马”台风的影响，华北、华东区域部分轮胎工厂因进水、漏雨、车间被淹等各种情况陆续停产，对丁苯、顺丁的需求体量继续弱化，丁苯、顺丁市场询盘气氛趋于平静，操盘商心态亦受拖拽，报盘加价利润陆续萎缩。缺乏实质性的需求支撑，丁苯顺丁市场现货流通受到阻扰，其价格继续上行存压，后续价格调整动态需密切关注原料丁二烯价格走势、终端企业修复后的采购进展。(以上观点，仅供参考)

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