国际组织预测橡胶需求温和增长

2026-02-02

国际组织预测橡胶需求温和增长

来源：ERJ

国际橡胶研究组织（IRSG）预测，到2032年全球橡胶需求将增长12%以上，主要驱动力来自车辆使用量和轮胎产量的稳步增长。该机构在2025年12月发布的《世界橡胶产业展望》报告中预计，2025年全球橡胶总需求量将达到3249万公吨，较2024年增长2.1%，并将在2032年进一步攀升至3657万公吨。

轮胎产量预计将保持温和增长，2025年增幅为0.24%，到2032年的年均增长率预计为1.46%。天然橡胶需求方面，IRSG预测2025年将同比增长2%至1573万公吨，2032年将达到1788万公吨。合成橡胶消费量则"呈现相似但稍缓的增长轨迹"，预计2025年增至1677万公吨，2032年达到1869万公吨。

供应端数据显示，2025年全球天然橡胶产量预计达1524万公吨，较2024年增长3.5%，2032年预计增至1710万公吨。但IRSG指出，天然橡胶市场将"持续处于结构性短缺状态"。预计2025年全球天然橡胶供需逆差为48.8万公吨，较2024年的68.9万公吨有所收窄，但到2032年将再度扩大至77.9万公吨。

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