外媒预测2026年天然橡胶价格

2026-03-12

外媒预测2026年天然橡胶价格

来源：ANRPC

汽车行业增长推动了天然橡胶消费。产量方面则面临天气和病害的挑战。中国、欧洲和美国的需求将出现复苏。这种供需失衡将使得价格保持坚挺，市场供应趋紧。

有行业机构表示，随着新兴经济体和发达经济体的汽车行业加速增长，推动消费，预计2026年全球天然橡胶需求将连续第六年超过产量。天然橡胶生产国协会（ANRPC）称，继2025年小幅增长1.4%之后，预计2026年全球产量将增长2.4%，达到1520万吨。

该机构表示："尽管自2025年以来种植者价格有所上涨，但由于恶劣天气、老化树木的补种有限、多年价格低迷后小农户生产力持续低下，以及土地用途改变带来的竞争，产量增长继续不及预期。"

ANRPC还补充道，橡胶种植园还面临着一场蔓延至多个产胶国的重大落叶病害爆发，导致严重的产量损失，部分地区的损失率高达30%至35%。

中国、欧洲和美国的需求增长预计将在2026年温和复苏。这可能是由欧盟新车注册量上升、美国轮胎出货量预测增强、涵盖橡胶制品的欧盟-印度和美国-印度贸易协定，以及中国继续推行政府激励措施鼓励购买电动汽车所推动。

热门新闻

ANRPC发布26年天然橡胶供需预测

2026年E-News03期

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