橡胶现货触底回升去库提速高位运行

2026-08-03

橡胶现货触底回升去库提速高位运行

来源：天然橡胶网

2026年7月第4周，天然橡胶现货市场呈现显著“V型反转”，周初探底后迅速回升并高位持稳。截至7月19日，国内社会库存降至119.7万吨，环比降1.1%，再创年内新低，自3月峰值累计去库18.6万吨。

需求端，山东轮胎开工率环比回升，全钢胎64.00%、半钢胎68.00%；上半年轮胎出口494万吨，同比增长4.9%。供应端，泰国产量预估下调至490.8万吨，上半年出口同比下降13%；印度上调天然橡胶支持价格至250卢比/公斤。政策层面，上期能源批准泰华树胶成为20号橡胶期货首家境外交割库，核定库容2万吨，覆盖东南亚主要产胶国。市场在低库存与弱需求博弈中维持震荡格局。

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