当前市场环境下，橡胶价格操作策略

「行业资讯」当前市场环境下，橡胶价格操作策略

2020-05-19

一、投机策略

天然橡胶虽然绝对价格偏低，且4月份价格有所回稳，但目前下游轮胎外销低迷拖累整体需求，而船货陆续到港，国内库存不断增加，支撑行情形成趋势性反弹的因素暂未形成，5月份或延续弱势格局，不排除二次探底可能。沪胶2009合约建议在9000-10300区间交易；20号胶主力2006合约建议在7300-8250区间交易，谨慎关注海外疫情发展情况。

二、套利策略

截至4月28日，沪胶2009合约结算价在9865元/吨，18年国营全乳胶价格在9500元/吨，期货升水365元/吨；ru2101合约升水ru2009合约1420元/吨。由于近月合约面临需求下降，而远月合约对应的是后期加大基建投资带来的需求增量预期，因此后市可继续关注卖近买远套利操作。

截至4月28日，nr2006合约结算价为8045元/吨，青岛保税区STR20库提价为1140美元/吨，折算成人民币报价后，升水期货价格16元/吨。截至4月27日，新加坡TSR20主力合约结算价为112.7美分/公斤，贴水国内nr期货176.78元/吨，由于国内开割时间预计大幅推迟，后市关注空新加坡TSR20多国内nr机会。

三、套保策略

在套期保值方面，国内疫情得到控制，但海外疫情仍未达到峰值，叠加国际油价处于低位，市场悲观情绪浓厚。虽然目前橡胶期价已经跌至历史低点，但考虑到需求端受到严重冲击，且海外疫情尚未出现拐点，后市存在较大的不确定，因此对于轮胎厂等原料需求商，建议采取随用随采策略。

四、风险防范

1、关注国内外经济政策变动、海外疫情发展情况；

2、产胶国政策，产区天气变化；

3、交易所库存和保税区内、外库存变动；

4、下游采购态度和数量。

热门新闻

「行业资讯」特殊时期我国橡胶进出口状况概览

「行业资讯」近期橡胶市场评估与展望

现场图片

联系我们

中联橡胶股份有限公司
地址：北京市朝阳区慧忠路5号
远大中心C座12层（100101）
电话：+86-10-53779792
传真：+86-10-53779608
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