近期橡胶主产区供应状况一览

「行业资讯」近期橡胶主产区供应状况一览

2020-05-19

目前主要的橡胶出产地：泰国、中国云南等均受到了公共卫生事件的影响，橡胶技术展了解到，目前因自然灾害原因，橡胶树也出现了不同程度的病变，这也给市场的恢复带来了些许不稳定因素。

4月份，泰国主产区因开割推迟，胶水产出偏紧，但成品价格低迷，倒逼原料收购价格保持低位运行。截至4月28日，白片价格37.59泰铢/公斤，较上月同期下跌0.76泰铢/公斤，较去年同期下跌13.29泰铢/公斤；烟片价格40.05泰铢/公斤，较上月同期上升0.46泰铢/公斤，较去年同期下跌13.65泰铢/公斤；胶水价格39泰铢/公斤，较上月同期上升3.5泰铢/公斤，较去年同期下跌11.8泰铢/公斤；杯胶价格27.1泰铢/公斤，较上月同期下跌0.4泰铢/公斤，较去年同期下跌13.9泰铢/公斤。

一般而言，当胶水价格在40泰铢/kg，胶农割胶意愿明显下降，弃割会显著增加；对杯胶而言，价格在32泰铢/公斤基本是弃割的分水岭。理论上来讲，新开割季来临时，原料价格若持续低迷，胶农割胶意愿下滑，延迟开割的可能性将会增大。但考虑到卫生事件的影响，轮胎厂停工、泰国旅游业遭遇严重冲击，虽然原料价格走跌，割胶收入低，但尚能提供现金流。因此，若非天气因素，开割或如期进行。近期泰国干旱情况有所好转，政府补贴产业，割胶情况预期恢复，未来供应预期维持稳定。

国内产区来看，正常年份下，国内云南、海南主产区分别于3月底和4月初开割，但今年云南版纳和普洱地区因干旱引发橡胶树出现较为严重的白粉病，胶树落叶严重；海南产区也受到雨水较少的影响，今年国内产区全面开割预计将推迟至5月中旬。虽然4月底产区旱情明显缓解，但因新叶稀少，尚不具备开割条件。但由于国内产量占比较小，一旦海外原料上量，天然橡胶供应依然充足。

热门新闻

「行业资讯」特殊时期我国橡胶进出口状况概览

「行业资讯」近期橡胶市场评估与展望

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